This paper analyzes the intermediate and long-run implications of failure to enact health care reform. Several observers have argued in recent weeks that health reform is not feasible because of the serious recession, declining tax revenues and the ballooning federal deficit. However, in the absence of reform, health care costs, health insurance premiums, and out-of-pocket spending are likely to continue to grow, though perhaps initially at a slower rate because of the poor economy. But as the economy improves, there is reason to believe that health care costs, insurance premiums and out-of-pocket spending will continue to increase at rates similar to those we have experienced in recent years, such as health care cost rising two percentage points faster than Gross Domestic Product (GDP).1 To the extent health care costs and premiums grow faster than incomes, employers will be less likely to offer coverage and individuals will be less likely to take up coverage when offered. The likelihood of enrolling in non-group coverage will be negatively affected by rising costs, though perhaps positively affected by reduced access to employer-based coverage. Those eligible for Medicaid would be more likely to enroll due to the rising costs of private options and higher out-of-pocket costs.
Blocks-On-Blox
"Practice Resurrection" - Wendell Berry
